Thursday, August 3, 2017

Fort Lauderdale Homes Approach Pre-Crash Prices


Home prices increased in June in Fort Lauderdale, throughout Broward County and across South Florida, continuing to approach the all-time peaks hit before the great real estate market collapse a decade ago.
Even so, analysts are not forecasting another meltdown.
“Most economic indicators support today’s prices,” explains Ken Johnson, a professor and economist at Florida Atlantic University. “I don’t see us waking up one day like we did in 2008 or 2009, realizing we are in free fall.”
According to the latest statistics released by the Greater Fort Lauderdale Relators, Broward’s median price for existing single family homes hit $355,000, up 9% over June 2016. The Realtors Association of the Palm Beaches reported an 8% increase in the value of existing single-family homes over the past annum in Palm Beach County, where the median price is now $345,000. In Miami-Dade, the median price was $335,000 according to the Miami Association of Realtors, which represents an increase of 6% over the past 12 months.
Home values in these three counties, which comprise the geographic reporting area of South Florida, have been climbing steadily since the real estate market began to recover around 2010.
At this point Broward County is only 9% off its peak median price of $391,100, achieved in November 2005. Palm Beach County is 18% off its pinnacle of $421,500, also reported that same month, while Miami-Dade County is 16% below it’s high of $401,100, hit in May, 2007.

What’s Different This Time Around?

Why are matters looking different this time around? There are a number of factors.
First and foremost is probably the fact that home prices have been climbing steadily, but not unreasonably, with periods of consolidation, which indicates a healthy market.
 
Take a look at the graphic below. This is the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index for the reporting area of South Florida going back to the 1970s (compared to the U.S. Average, which is the green line). You can see what the market did between 2003 to 2005. To be perfectly frank, it went nuts. Some homes practically doubled in value over those two years. Look at that spike. That’s what an impending bubble looks like.

 One thing I always find interesting about this chart – if you draw a trend line from the 70s through 2010, you see that even though our market had that incredible spike, followed by that precipitous fall, it still pretty much came back to where it should have been.

At any rate, we are not seeing home prices increasing by double digits annually in Fort Lauderdale and South Florida. Historically an appreciation driven market experiencing boom and bust cycles while continuing to trend upward, in a normal year it is not unusual for home values in Fort Lauderdale to go up 7-9%. Coming out of the market meltdown we had a couple pretty strong years. Median Sale Price for Single Family Homes in Broward increased 27-30% over 2012 and 2013, depending whose statistics you want to quote, but the following year the market consolidated, and the Median Price showed only a modest 5.9% increase in 2014, followed by 7.8% in 2015 and 6.5% in 2016.
This was a very good sign, showing we had a healthy market which could sustain good long term growth.

Supply and Demand

Another dynamic playing a large role in shaping our local real estate market is supply and demand. Inventory is very tight and sales are down.
Palm Beach County reported 1,855 closings in June, which is an increase of 2% over the past 12 months, while sales in Miami-Dade sales were up 4%.
It was a different story in Fort Lauderdale, however, the most desirable location in the state of Florida. Through the suburban communities of Broward County sales were down 6% from the previous June, marking the third consecutive month of declining sales.
“Closings were down in most of the country because interested buyers are being tripped up by supply that remains stuck at a meager level and price growth that’s straining their budget,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors.
“Demand for buying a home is as strong as it has been since before the Great Recession,” added Yun. “Listings in the affordable price range continue to be scooped up rapidly, but the severe housing shortages inflicting many markets are keeping a large segment of would-be buyers on the sidelines.”
According to Zillow’s chief economist, Svenja Gudell, this lack of homes for sale nationwide is “bordering on an inventory crisis.”
Gudell released a statement which pointed out: “There are about as many homes for sale now as there were in 1994, except there are about 63 million more people in this country now than there were then.”

They’re Not Making Any More

Frankly, nowhere is this lack of inventory more apparent than in Fort Lauderdale and its surrounding suburbs. Broward County is not large. The whole county is about 27 miles tall, around 45 miles wide. Almost 60% of this area are waterways and wetlands, however, which can’t be developed without cutting off our water supply, leaving only 471 square miles of developable dry land.
At this point this land is 99.99999% developed. There are no more big chunks of pasture and scrub forest for developers to bull doze into acres of tract homes. Even so, the population of Broward County continues to swell. Florida recently surpassed New York to become the nation’s third most populous state, mainly because you never have to shovel sunshine off your driveway. Now home to $1.6 million, by the early 2020s this is projected to over two million residents. That’s an increase of nearly 30% more people squeezing into the same 471 square miles of developable dry land.

Connecting the dots, the prospects for appreciation in home values in Fort Lauderdale and across South Florida seems like pretty much a No-Brainer. Barring acts of God, asteroid impacts and/or Godzilla rising from the Atlantic Ocean, it is difficult to conclude property prices can do much more than appreciate significantly over the foreseeable future.in property values seems relatively inevitable.
Additionally, whatever rate of appreciation might be projected for the entire  county, prime real estate – waterfont homes, ocean front condos, houses and townhomes in premier neighborhoods near the coast – should out-perform.

Monday, May 29, 2017

Median Price for Condos in Fort Lauderdale Showing 10% Annual Appreciation


The median sales price for an existing single-family home in the state of Florida rose to $234,900, appreciating 10.3% over the course of the 12-month period ending in April, 2017 according to the latest real estate statistics released by the research department of the Florida Association of Realtors. Through that period the statewide median price for condo, co-op and townhome properties increased 7.2% to $172,000. April marked the 65th consecutive month the median price for both housing sectors reported year-over-year appreciation.

Tight inventory of properties on the market ramains the prevailing trend in Florida real estate, resulting in a slight drop in total sales of single-family homes, which totaled 23,829 in April of 2017, a decrease of 1.2% when compared to April, 2016.

These stats are compiled by the Florida Association of Realtors from MLS data supplied by local realtor boards and associations. Median price represents the midpoint: half the homes sold for more, half for less.

Florida Realtors President Maria Wells is quoted as saying: "It puts consumers in a position where they have to be prepared and ready to buy, as many Realtors around the state report seeing more instances of multiple offers. And without more for-sale homes median prices will continue to rise due to demand. In April, sellers of existing single-family homes received (a median percentage of)96.2% of their original listing price, while those selling townhouse and condominium properties received 94.7% – an indication the listed price is extremely close to market value.

"Working with a local Realtor enables consumers to have the advice of an expert in their local housing market – someone who can guide them through their home search and help them find the right home that fits their budget and their lifestyle."

As usual property appreciation in Florida significantly out-performed the U.S. average. According to the latest report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), the median sales price for existing single-family homes in April 2017 was $246,100, representing an annual increase of 6.1% on sales which decreased 2.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4,950,000. Median price for existing condos was $234,600, a 5.6% rise over the previous annum.

Focusing on FortLauderdale and the surrounding neighborhoods, the median price for an existing single family home in Broward County appreciated 6.5% over the last year, while the median price for condos and townhomes increased 10.0%

Other stats reported show closed sales of single-family homes declined in 14 of Florida's 22 metro areas compared to the previous April, and dropped 1.2% statewide.

"There is no indication demand is falling off," said Dr. Brad O'Connor, the Florida Realtors Chief Economist. "Rather, all signs continue to point to a market being held back by a shortage of homes for sale. As of the end of April, the statewide inventory of single-family homes for sale was down nearly 5% compared to where it was a year ago.

"Additionally, single-family homes which did sell in April were snapped up as quickly as in any month in recent years. According to Florida Realtors median-time-to-sale metric, half the single-family homes selling in April of last year went from listing to close in 90 days or less, but this April, that figure declined to 85 days or less – a 5.6% drop."

O'Connor also noted condominium and townhome market has been relatively more balanced than the single-family market from a statewide perspective, but local markets experience more variance in their condo and townhouse inventory levels.

April's inventory remained constricted with a 4-months' supply for single-family homes and a 6.1-months' supply for townhome and condominium, according to Florida Realtors.

Meanwhile the interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.05% in April of 2017 according to Freddie Mac, a fairly significan increase from the 3.61% average reported during the same month the previous year.

Thursday, March 23, 2017

Pay More Taxes, Get Less Appreciation, AND Freeze Your Butt Off. Sounds Like A Great Idea.

A number of interesting research reports have recently been released by WalletHub, a personal finance website, ranking the states in the country: which states have the highest and lowest property taxes; which states have the highest and lowest overall tax burdens; which states have the highest and lowest cost of living.

As always, going over these stats, we wonder why anybody wants to buy real estate in or live anywhere besides FortLauderdale.


Lowest Property Taxes

 

The average American household spends $2,149 on property taxes for their homes each year, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Which states pack the biggest property-tax punch? WalletHub analyzed the 50 states and the District of Columbia in terms of real-estate taxes.

 (Rank, State, Property Tax Rate, Taxes on $179k Home, Median Price)

1.) Hawaii, 0.27%, $487, $515,300
2.) Alabama, 0.43%, $773, $125,500
3.) Louisiana, 0.49%, $876, $144,100
4.) Delaware, 0.54%, $969, $231,500
5.) District of Columbia, 0.56%, $1,000, $475,800
6.) South Carolina, 0.57%, $1,019, $139,900
7.) West Virginia, 0.58%, $1,044, $103,800
8.) Colorado, 0.60%, $1,073, $247,800
9.) Wyoming, 0.61%, $1,097, $194,800
10.) Arkansas, 0.62%, $1,111, $111,400
11.) Utah, 0.68%, $1,218, $215,900
12.) New Mexico, 0.74%, $1,324, $160,300
13.) Tennessee, 0.75%, $1,335, $142,100
14.) Idaho, 0.76%, $1,366, $162,900
15.) Mississippi, 0.79%, $1,408, $103,100
16.) Virginia, 0.80%, $1,420, $245,000
17.) California, 0.81%, $1,438, $385,500
18.) Arizona, 0.81%, $1,446, $167,500
19.) Kentucky, 0.81%, $1,511, $123,200
20.) Nevada, 0.81%, $1,523, $173,700
21.) North Carolina, 0.81%, $1,524, $124,200
22.) Montana, 0.81%, $1,525, $193,500
23.) Indiana, 0.87%, $1,560, $124,200
24.) Oklahoma, 0.88%, $1,569, $117,900
25.) Georgia, 0.94%, $1,685, $148,100
26.) Missouri, 1.00%, $1,790, $138,400
27.) Florida, 1.06%, $1,894, $159,000
28.) Oregon, 1.08%, $1,929, $237,300
29.) Washington, 1.08%, $1,931, $259,500
30.) Maryland, 1.10%, $1,956, $286,900
31.) North Dakota, 1.12%, $2,000, $153,800
32.) Minnesota, 1.18%, $2,110, $186,200
33.) Alaska, 1.18%, $2,112, $250,000
34.) Massachusetts, 1.20%, $2,139, $333,100
35.) Maine, 1.30%, $2,321, $173,800
36.) South Dakota, 1.34%, $2,389, $140,500
37.) Kansas, 1.40%, $2,502, $132,000
38.) Iowa, 1.48%, $2,649, $129,200
39.) Pennsylvania, 1.53%, $2,725, $166,000
40.) Ohio, 1.56%, $2,794, $129,600
41.) New York, 1.62%, $2,899, $283,400
42.) Rhode Island, 1.63%, $2,915, $238,000
43.) Vermont, 1.75%, $3,116, $217,500
44.) Michigan, 1.78%, $3,172, $122,400
45.) Nebraska, 1.85%, $3,308, $133,200
46.) Texas, 1.90%, $3,386, $136,600
47.) Wisconsin, 1.96%, $3,499, $165,800
48.) Connecticut, $1.97%, $3,517, $270,500
49.) New Hampshire, 2.15%, $3,838, $237,300
50.) Illinois, 2.30%, $4,105, $173,800
51.) New Jersey, 2.35%, $4,189, $315,900


The Highest Tax Rates


WalletHub also compiled a report ranking which states had the highest and lowest tax burdens.

1.) Rank
2.) State
3.) Effective Total Local and State Tax Rates on Median U.S. Household. Assumes “Median U.S. Household” has an annual income of $54,286 (mean third quintile U.S. income); owns a home valued at $178,600 (median U.S. home value); owns a car valued at $23,070 (the highest-selling car of 2016); and spends annually an amount equal to the spending of a household earning the median U.S. income.
4.) Annual State and Local Taxes on Median U.S Household.
Adjusted Overall Rank based on Cost of Living Index

1.) Alaska, 5.64%, $3,060, 5
2.) Delaware, 6.07%, $3,293, 1
3.) Montana, 6.89%, $3,741, 3
4.) Wyoming, 7.43%, $4,036, 2
5.) Nevada, 7.66%, $4,157, 7
6.) Tennessee, 7.97%, $4,3276, 4
7.) Idaho, 8.48%, $4,604, 6
8.) California, 8.79%, $4,774, 34
9.) South Carolina, 8.84%, $4,800, 11
10.) Florida, 8.94%, $4,851, 10
11.) Oregon, 9.22%, $5,004, 26
12.) Utah, 9.25%, $5,019, 8
13.) Colorado, 9.34%, $5,071, 14
14.) Alabama, 9.43%, $5,120, 9
15.) Arizona, 9.60%, $5,211, 12
16.) South Dakota, 9.77%, $5,302, 21
17.) District of Columbia, 10.0%, $5,428, 45
18.) North Dakota, 10.03%, $5,447, 17
19.) New Hampshire, 10.09%, $5,475, 35
20.) Louisiana, 10.33%, $5,608, 16
21.) Hawaii, 10.33%, $5,610, 49
22.) West Virginia, 10.38%, $5,635, 18
23.) Georgia, 10.57%, $5,739, 15
24.) North Carolina, 10.63%, $5,773, 20
25.) Oklahoma, 10.70%, $5,809, 13
26.) New Mexico, 10.73%, $5,825, 23
27.) Virginia, 10.89%, $5,943, 29
28.) Vermont, 10.89%, $5,913, 42
29.) Missouri,11.02%, $5,981, 19
30.) Texas, 11.12%, $6,034, 22
31.) Massachusetts, 11.52%, $6,253, 47
32.) Minnesota, 11.59%%, $6,291, 32
33.) Maine, 11.64%, $6,316, 40
34.) Washington, 11.72%, $6,363, 37
35.) Indiana, 11.87%, $6,444, 24
36.) Maryland, 11.92%, $6,470, 44
37.) Kentucky, 12.01%, $6,522, 28
38.) Mississippi, 12.14%, $6,589, 25
39.) Kansas, 1.28%, $6,665, 30
40.) Arkansas, 12.28%, $6,665, 27
41.) Pennsylvania, 12.33%, $6,691, 39
42.) New Jersey, 12.63%, $6,855, 46
43.) Iowa, 12.84%, $6,968, 33
44.) Michigan, 13.00%, $7,058, 31
45.) Ohio, 13.06%, $7,087, 36
46.) Connecticut, 13.56%, $7,361, 50
47.) Rhode Island, 13.57%, $7,367, 48
48.) New York, 13.58%, $7,370, 51
49.) Wisconsin, 13.60%, $7,384, 41
50.) Nebraska, 13.80%, $7,493, 38
51.) Illinois, 14.76%, $8,011, 43</li>


Adjusted Cost of Living


WalletHub incorporated these factors to then compile a ranking of the states by Adjusted Overall Rank based on Cost of Living Index.

1.) Delaware
2.) Wyoming
3.) Montana
4.) Tennessee
5.) Alaska
6.) Idaho
7.) Nevada
8.) Utah
9.) Alabama
10.) Florida
11.) South Carolina
12.) Arizona
13.) Oklahoma
14.) Colorado
15.) Georgia
16.) Louisiana
17.) North Dakota
18.) West Virginia
19.) Missouri
20.) North Carolina
21.) South Dakota
22.) Texas
23.) New Mexico
24.) Indiana
25.) Mississippi
26.) Oregon
27.) Arkansas
28.) Kentucky
29.) Virginia
30.) Kansas
31.) Michigan
32.) Minnesota
33.) Iowa
34.) California
35.) New Hampshire
36.) Ohio
37.) Washington
38.) Nebraska
39.) Pennsylvania
40.) Maine
41.) Wisconsin
42.) Vermont
43.) Illinois
44.) Maryland
45.) District of Columbia
46.) New Jersey
47.) Massachusetts
48.) Rhode Island
49.) Hawaii
50.) Connecticut
51.) New York