Saturday, December 14, 2013

Welcome to The Party, Pal!

Fabled “Shadow Inventory” In Sharp Decline After Costing Investors MILLIONS!

Last couple years, as the FortLauderdale Real Estate market stabilized and began bouncing back, I told my Clients to start buying. Some listened, and have made money. Median Prices for single family homes and condos across South Florida have risen over 20%. Still, that’s an average encompassing all of Broward County. Prime property, waterfront and ocean view in more desirable neighborhoods, have shot up even farther.

Many clients, however, were seduced by the dark side. They kept quoting crap they read on the internet about the fabled “Shadow Inventory” – this wave of distressed properties supposedly looming on the horizon, which was going to sweep in like a tsunami and tank prices all over again. I tried to explain that was almost impossible. Once the banks got caught with their cookies in the candy jar, basically forging paperwork, and they had to start foreclosing legally, they would simply not be able to release waves of foreclosures like they had done in past years.

This literally cost people MILLIONS in potential profits.

Now in past weeks two highly respected housing data tracking agencies – RealtyTrac and CoreLogic – released reports which show the distressed property market in serious decline.

According to CoreLogic’s NationalForeclosure report, 48,000 foreclosures were completed in the United States in October (2013), where the bank actually took possession of the property. That’s down from 68,000 in October 2012 for a year over year decrease of 30 percent.

As for the “shadow inventory,” as of October 2013, according to CoreLogic, approximately 879,000 homes in the U.S. were in some stage of foreclosure – still owned by a mortgage holder but at risk of being taken over by a lender – compared to 1.3 million in October 2012 for a year-over-year decrease of 31 percent.

The RealtyTrac number were very close. According to their Foreclosure Market Report for November foreclosure filings – all default notices, scheduled auctions and bank repossessions – decreased 37%.

While this drop reflects all homes somewhere within the foreclosure process, a decline in the number of homes receiving their first foreclosure notice reflects a stronger improvement. A total of 52,826 U.S. properties started the foreclosure process for the first time in November 2013, down 32 year over year, hitting its lowest level since December 2005

In Florida the percentage of home owners receiving a first-time foreclosure notice also dropped dramatically. The Sunshine State had 6,744 foreclosure starts in November, a 45.9% decline year to year.

The number of Florida foreclosure completions also dropped, 15.59 from the previous November.

Personally I felt many buyers focused too much on Foreclosures over the past few years, which in many instances were in rough shape. Some investors made money buying fixer uppers, fixing them up and flipping them, but these days the banks themselves are putting some work into the properties so they can command a better price.


The thing to remember is that a good deal is a good deal, it doesn’t matter if it’s a foreclosure or not. An expert professional realtor who knows the market – me, for instance – can still help you find a good deal. Just give me a call.

Tuesday, October 22, 2013

The Truth About The Inventory of Homes For Sale in Fort Lauderdale

Many people talk about the lack of inventory on the housing market these days, but that’s simply a sign Fort Lauderdale Real Estate is back on track.

People are spoiled. Over the past few years we have seen an abundance of single family houses and
condos for sale thanks to the housing market crash. At present, however I’d venture to say we have a
fairly average number of properties listed. If anything the current inventory may still be a little larger than what you might find in a “normal” market. I put that in quotes because Fort Lauderdale Real Estate is such a specialized microcosm onto itself that it takes a true connoisseur to define a normal market down here.

Hard to believe it’s 10 years plus or minus from the housing bubble days of 2003 to 2005. Apparently
many forget how crazy things were through that period. I recall one client back then searching for a condo is Island Club. You had to jump on things. I’d watch that complex for new listings every day. When a condo unit appeared you had at most a day or two to schedule a showing and submit an offer. One deal I remember was listed by a particularly unpleasant woman who insisted I hand deliver our contract to her office up in Lighthouse Point, and I was in my car and heading north. We still did not get the deal, for multiple offers had been received and my Client’s full price offer was outbid by another Buyer willing to pay more than the Listed Price.

Every so often I think about looking that unit up, see if the party who outbid us was able to keep the unit, or it later sold as a Short Sale for half the price.

Obviously we have a different market today, though many a good Foreclosure property receives multiple offers and frequently sell for 10-15% more than their Listed Price. But prices have snapped back sharply from their lows in 2008-09. Before that prices were in free fall. People were bailing before the situation got worse. Once the market stabilized in 2010 I told Clients to start buying, because Buyers from up north or overseas who don’t really know the Fort Lauderdale Real Estate have no idea how quickly our housing market can roar to life. Investors who believed all that crap about the fabled Shadow Inventory lost out on MILLIONS in profits.

Still the inventory of homes for sale in South Florida is pretty healthy. Buyers with defined search
parameters – who are looking for a certain type property in a specific neighborhood in a stated price range – let’s say a 3/2 pool home in Imperial Point in the mid $300s – their Real Estate Agent is not going to plug those parameters into the MLS and get a plethora of choices. Once upon a time you might’ve found 8-10 homes currently listed. Now there might only be 2 or 3, and the cheaper ones will often have pimples.

These days you may have to bide your time, watch that neighborhood for a couple months, but you can still find good deals. Even so, be prepared to move. The latest stats for Sept. 2013 show the average Listing in Broward County goes Pending in 27 days.

Monday, October 7, 2013

What Home Buyers & Real Estate Investors Must Know About Buying A Foreclosure Property in Fort Lauderdale



Much attention, in some ways too much attention, in today’s market is focused upon Foreclosures, also known as REOs (Real Estate Owned). You can find some good deals in REOs, and they make sense for certain investors, however, don’t limit yourself just to shopping Foreclosures. Buyers should not overlook straight old-fashioned sales. Distressed property sets the bar, with the level of distress factored in, but if a homeowner needs to sell his house they cannot List it appreciably higher than the Foreclosure or Short Sale next door, on his block, in his neighborhood.
To compete successfully in the Foreclosure market you must understand the way things work, follow methods which are at this point established. Here’s a few things you should know, be prepared for:
1.) Remember Foreclosures by definition represent a home someone has walked away from. This is not an overnight process. It took months, probably over a year to get these people out. They occupied the premises for months and months not paying anything, waiting for the axe to fall. Very few care about or can afford to maintain these properties and many, in anger and resentment, pulled appliances and fixtures, perhaps even damaged the home before they left. After that the property might’ve been vacant for months before the Bank managed to list it for sale. If you are not in construction, if you’re not much of a Do-It-Yourselfer, if you don’t have a reliable and inexpensive source for remodeling, pay real close attention to how much it might cost to whip this property into shape and make sure you factor that into your P&L.
2.) Just because it’s a Foreclosure doesn’t necessarily mean it’s a good deal. With distressed properties a key component of the Listing price is how much the Bank or Lender has into the deal. I’ve had Clients submit offers on two almost identical villas in the same complex, owned by the same Lender, yet one sold for $20,000 more than the other. Why? Because one had a bigger mortgage.
3.) Don’t expect logic or intelligence. One fact becomes readily apparent when you delve into the Foreclosure market – the Banks and Lenders aren’t much smarter about getting OUT of the mess they created than they were getting into it. I had Clients renting a Townhouse that was getting Foreclosed upon. They approached the Bank, offered to buy it. They had good credit. They said they would sign a mortgage, so the Bank could make money on the property, recoup a bit of their losses. The Bank said no, they had to move out. The place sat vacant for months, sold for less than my Clients would have paid.
Buyers make offers on Foreclosures, they think they're dealing with a Banker – a guy in a suit and tie sitting in an office with a window and a secretary. Lower those expectations. In the basement of that building is a rat's nest of cubicles that needed new carpeting four years ago. The whole floor smells like B.O. In one cubicle is a broken down old desk piled with files, a bottle of Kaopectate, the large economy size Excedrin. Behind this sits a broken man in a rumpled shirt and an opened tie who stinks of stale coffee and cigarettes. This is the guy who handles the Foreclosures. He makes the same crappy salary whether you buy the place or not. And once a week he has to send a report up to the guy with the window office explaining how much he managed to get selling properties that were supposedly worth X-amount according to the BPO's they'd pulled.
4.) Don’t expect much from the “Listing Agent.” Most Realtors who specialize in Listing REOs are not going to be much help. They typically receive a very small commission for filling out some paperwork, putting a lockbox on the property. Their voice mailbox will be full. They will return emails days later, if at all. I have submitted offers to Agents and they don’t even take my call, never return my message. You would think you make an offer on a Realtor’s Listing, they would pick up the phone. Don’t bet on it. Sometimes they take days to submit offers to the banks. This is usually done by email. Often the Listing Agents don’t even have a phone number to the person they are dealing with at the bank. A week later you call up, ask what’s happening with your offer, they say they haven’t seen any emails yet.
5.) Know the neighborhood. Drive by, look at the property. Check the surrounding area. The more intrinsic value a property possesses the less likely somebody is to walk away from it. See what general state the property is in before you start getting excited, expend any time or resources, whether the neighborhood will ever appreciate even once the market starts coming back. There's always a reason a property is Listed for a low price, even by the Banks. Buying a 3 Bedroom house for $35-40,000 may sound intriguing, but fact of the matter it's liable to be within a Police perimeter at least 3 nights a week.
6.) Be prepared to move fast. Have all your ducks in a row. Some REOs stay on the market because they are simply not good deals. The good deals go quick. Some banks leave their Foreclosures on the market 7 to 10 working days. Have an Agent ready to move. Have money in Escrow. Have Proof of Funds set up.
7.) Pay Cash. The vast majority of the good Foreclosure deals go to Buyers who are paying cash. Think about it. Why is that property on the market to begin with? The bank’s already gotten burned. Now they just want cash. A logical person might presume the bank would want to finance the new owner, recoup some of the money they’ve lost. Well, that’s another department. These guys want cash. If you are not prepared to pay cash, then you are operating at a distinct disadvantage, especially for the exceptional deals. Be Pre-Qualified, at least, and make sure your Real Estate Agent has that as well. Frankly, however, if you want to finance you will probably have a better chance getting a deal going after Short Sales.
8.) Low Ball is No Ball. Don’t even think about low-balling. Especially on really good deals. Got 3 hours? I could tell you 10% of the stories I know about buyers who had to get cute. The Bank sets a price, you’ve got to be relatively close to that to stand a chance. The really good Foreclosure deals there are usually multiple offers. I counsel clients to offer MORE than the Listing Price. If it’s an unbelievable deal at $125,000, offer $132,000 and finish ahead of the clowns who are trying to nickel and dime them. We’ve done this, still not gotten the deal. It went to somebody outbidding us. If the house was selling for 300-something 4-5 years ago, now the bank’s asking $160k, it’s still a great deal at $165k. I’ve seen buyers thinking they can get it for 120-130k; the place goes for $170-180k. And in 3-5 years, the guy who bought it’s going to get $250-260k, make a $100,000 profit.
9.) Proof of Funds. Set up a system that can generate a quick Proof of Funds letter for your Agent. This must be a letter from a financial institution, on their letterhead, with a legitimate contact person, stating that you have sufficient resources to purchase the property in question at such-and-such a price. If you are offering $60,000, this letter must say $60,000. You can show them account statements, too, or give you agent a number of letters already filled out with pre-determined amounts, however, think how it will look to the bank if you are offering $55,000 for a property they have listed at $60,000 and they see a Proof of Funds letter or an account statement showing you can afford more. I try to have my REO investors set up some email communication between myself and the contact at their financial institution. We start putting a deal together, I email the contact, copying the Client, requesting the POF, and I can usually have the letter by the time we’re submitting the offer.
10.) Highest and Best. When a Foreclosure represents an extremely good deal the bank will receive multiple offers. I have gone after properties where there were 8 or 9 offers. I did a deal on a great house in Coral Ridge; it was on the market 2 days and they got 6 or 7 offers, many for more than the Listing Price. Many time the bank will go back to the parties who have submitted the better offers and ask for their “Highest and Best Price,” trying to get Buyers to up their bids. Be prepared for this, though I cannot offer much in the way of advice how to handle it.
11.) Be prepared to sign their “Act of God” Addendum. If you prevail, win the deal, the bank sends you an Addendum to sign which pretty much supersedes all the terms of the offer contract you submitted, and protects them (the bank) from anything up to and/or including nuclear war and an asteroid collision. You have to sign this. If not they simply give the deal to the next guy in line. READ IT FIRST, however. Most times these Act of God Addendums pretty much reflect the terms of the deal you submitted with only minor, if any, modifications. But MAKE SURE.
12.) Check the Utilities. Many times you find notices from the Water or Electric Company hanging on the front door of these Foreclosures. Make sure you check with the Utility companies, find out if there are any outstanding balances, include them in the Closing. Otherwise you could be on the hook for a couple extra hundred dollars which you will never be able to collect afterwards.
These are the basic rules to survive in the REO market. Still, if there’s one thing we hope you remember from this article it’s what we said above – don’t restrict your shopping to just Foreclosures. Short Sales are a royal pain in the you know what, but you can get good deals if you weather the storm, but a regular Homeowner who’s trying to sell his house cannot price it significantly higher than the REOs and/or Short Sales in his neighborhood. I’ve had a number of Clients come to me, interested in distressed properties, and after putting up with the ridiculous rigamarole through a few frustrating failures I bring them a regular old-fashioned sale, where you have Listing Agent who actually works, and you can make an offer, negotiate a deal between human beings, and come away with a property which doesn’t need work and an immediate infusion of capital to become liveable.
Happy hunting. If you are interested in REOs in South Florida you can find FreeForeclosure Lists on our website at Fort LauderdaleBeach Property – a great resource for Ft. Lauderdale Real Estate.