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Fabled “Shadow Inventory” In Sharp Decline After Costing Investors MILLIONS!

Last couple years, as the FortLauderdale Real Estate market stabilized and began bouncing back, I told my Clients to start buying. Some listened, and have made money. Median Prices for single family homes and condos across South Florida have risen over 20%. Still, that’s an average encompassing all of Broward County. Prime property, waterfront and ocean view in more desirable neighborhoods, have shot up even farther.

Many clients, however, were seduced by the dark side. They kept quoting crap they read on the internet about the fabled “Shadow Inventory” – this wave of distressed properties supposedly looming on the horizon, which was going to sweep in like a tsunami and tank prices all over again. I tried to explain that was almost impossible. Once the banks got caught with their cookies in the candy jar, basically forging paperwork, and they had to start foreclosing legally, they would simply not be able to release waves of foreclosures like they had done in past years.

This literally cost people MILLIONS in potential profits.

Now in past weeks two highly respected housing data tracking agencies – RealtyTrac and CoreLogic – released reports which show the distressed property market in serious decline.

According to CoreLogic’s NationalForeclosure report, 48,000 foreclosures were completed in the United States in October (2013), where the bank actually took possession of the property. That’s down from 68,000 in October 2012 for a year over year decrease of 30 percent.

As for the “shadow inventory,” as of October 2013, according to CoreLogic, approximately 879,000 homes in the U.S. were in some stage of foreclosure – still owned by a mortgage holder but at risk of being taken over by a lender – compared to 1.3 million in October 2012 for a year-over-year decrease of 31 percent.

The RealtyTrac number were very close. According to their Foreclosure Market Report for November foreclosure filings – all default notices, scheduled auctions and bank repossessions – decreased 37%.

While this drop reflects all homes somewhere within the foreclosure process, a decline in the number of homes receiving their first foreclosure notice reflects a stronger improvement. A total of 52,826 U.S. properties started the foreclosure process for the first time in November 2013, down 32 year over year, hitting its lowest level since December 2005

In Florida the percentage of home owners receiving a first-time foreclosure notice also dropped dramatically. The Sunshine State had 6,744 foreclosure starts in November, a 45.9% decline year to year.

The number of Florida foreclosure completions also dropped, 15.59 from the previous November.

Personally I felt many buyers focused too much on Foreclosures over the past few years, which in many instances were in rough shape. Some investors made money buying fixer uppers, fixing them up and flipping them, but these days the banks themselves are putting some work into the properties so they can command a better price.

The thing to remember is that a good deal is a good deal, it doesn’t matter if it’s a foreclosure or not. An expert professional realtor who knows the market – me, for instance – can still help you find a good deal. Just give me a call.